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Accelerating arms race

The days of arms control are numbered. With the expiry of New START in February 2026, the last arms control treaty between the United States and Russia that regulates nuclear weapons will be terminated. Russia suspended New START in 2023, but has nonetheless adhered to the treaty’s limit on the number of strategic nuclear weapons.

China, who, like the other nuclear-armed powers, remains outside the arms control regime, is increasing its nuclear weapons arsenal significantly. The prospect of three major and rival nuclear-armed states is different and more complex than the traditional strategic deterrent established by the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. The great powers are heading towards a new strategic arms race.

Russia intensifies its deterrence against the West
 

Russia has a comprehensive and highly ambitious weapons programme that includes testing and developing both strategic and non-strategic weapons. In his annual address to the nation in 2018, President Putin announced that Russia is developing a range of new weapons systems in response to the United States’ investment in missile defence. Russia has continued all these programmes, with some of the weapons fully developed and placed into operational service, while others still require several more years of development and testing. The most prominent development from 2024, however, is the change in rhetoric surrounding the country’s non-strategic nuclear weapons.

Non-strategic nuclear weapons rhetoric

Russia has a considerably higher number of non-strategic nuclear weapons than the other nuclear-armed states. This includes nuclear weapons for use by land, naval and air forces, as well as for air and missile defence systems. Russia stores non-strategic nuclear weapons in dozens of nuclear storage facilities across the country.

Russia conducts regular exercises with its non-strategic nuclear forces, but has traditionally done so without publicly announcing them. In the summer of 2024, Russia changed tack by mentioning and publishing videos from one of these exercises. With the goal of deterring the West in general and Western support for Ukraine in particular, Russia reminds both domestic and Western audiences of its non-strategic nuclear weapons capability through its rhetoric.

Using intermediate-range missile Oreshnik for deterrence

In November 2024, Russia launched an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) with 36 small, conventional warheads against Ukraine. The missile is not new, but this was the first known use of Oreshnik, and the first operational use of an IRBM ever. The missile is considerably more expensive than the other missiles Russia uses against targets in Ukraine. The large number of warheads ensures high penetrability against air defences, but does not add any significant firepower. The purpose of using this missile was to strengthen Russia’s escalation control and deterrence against the West. The missile has sufficient range to reach targets across Europe from Russia.

 

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  1. Sarmat is an intercontinental ballistic missile under development. Sarmat is crucial for Russia’s ability to maintain strategic nuclear parity with the United States. The missile’s development has been beset by challenges and delays. Several of the missile tests have failed, including the most recent one in September 2024, when the missile exploded and destroyed the launch silo.

  2. Poseidon is a submarine-launched intercontinental torpedo with a nuclear warhead which is under development. It features a nuclear reactor which provides very long range. The torpedo requires a large and purpose-built submarine as a launch platform. Due to high complexity, the development and testing of this weapons system will take time.

  3. Burevestnik is a long-range cruise missile under development. Burevestnik features a nuclear reactor for propulsion. This propulsion system gives the missile a very long range and therefore the ability to attack targets across the globe in any direction. Burevestnik can take unpredictable flight paths and exploit blind spots in the detection and interception capabilities of air defence systems. Russia has been testing Burevestnik since 2016, including from Novaya Zemlya. It will still take some time before the missile is fully developed and can be deployed to the armed forces.

  4. Avangard is a hypersonic glide vehicle with intercontinental range. Avangard glides through the upper layers of the atmosphere and can manoeuvre throughout much of its flight. This makes it unpredictable and difficult to intercept for missile defence systems. Avangard is deployed in missile silos in Dombarovskiy, deep inside Russia.

China enhances its nuclear weapons capability
 

China still has considerably fewer nuclear warheads than Russia and the US, but its arsenal has grown and will continue to grow rapidly. Land-based nuclear weapons are the backbone of China’s strategic deterrence, but the country is also expanding its capability to deliver nuclear weapons from the sea and the air. This means that China no longer practices minimum deterrence.

China has built and started to equip 300 new silos with intercontinental ballistic missiles carrying nuclear warheads. The silos are vulnerable to an initial nuclear weapons attack. At the same time, these silo-based nuclear weapons have a shorter preparation time and are therefore suited to first-strike use and immediate retaliation against a nuclear attack.

China is developing new strategic submarines and bombers in order to strengthen the ability to launch nuclear weapons from the sea and the air as well. The diversification of nuclear forces across multiple delivery platforms on land, under the sea and in the air increases flexibility and reduces vulnerability in China’s nuclear forces.

In addition to long-range strategic nuclear weapons, China is developing advanced conventional weapons and nuclear weapons with regional range, suitable for tactical use. China is particularly investing in weapons systems designed to penetrate regional missile defence systems, including manoeuvrable and unpredictable hypersonic glide vehicles.

 

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Focus 2025 contents:

Contents and introduction
1. Russia
2. China
3. Russia increasingly depends on China
4. Accelerating arms race
5. Conflicts in the Middle East and Africa heighten the terrorist threat
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